China Economy
China’s Overcapacity Risks Strain US-China Relations and Global Economy
Pamir assesses that strong disagreements between Washington and Beijing will persist on the risks China’s excess capacity poses to US-China relations and the global economy.
US-China Tensions Persist Despite Biden-Xi Call
Pamir observes that US and Chinese official readouts indicate that fundamental disagreements on priority issues – Taiwan, the South China Sea, trade, and technology –continue to strain the relationship. US-China relations are likely to remain turbulent for the rest of 2024.
Apple Maintains Top China Market Position Despite Declining Sales
Apple continues to maintain market dominance in China, despite the decline in iPhone sales in the first weeks of 2024. The iPhone is likely to maintain its technological superiority amid intensifying competition with Chinese rivals.
Chinese Communist Party Under Xi Jinping Broadens Command
The National People’s Congress (NPC) has codified the subordination of the State Council, China’s central government, to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The weakening of Premier LI Qiang, the head of government, relative to President XI Jinping signals the CCP’s broadening command over the central government.
China Doubles Down on Technology-Based Development
The recent meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) stressed the importance of science and technology development for China in 2024.
China Controls Expectations for Economy in 2024
Despite a relatively upbeat assessment of China’s economic performance in 2023, the Chinese government is controlling expectations for 2024 by setting economic targets that are nearly identical to those for 2023.
China Update - Chinese experts see no likelihood of major improvements in US-China relations - 13 December 2023
Chinese government propaganda hailed the meeting between presidents Biden and Xi in San Francisco on 15 November as a “historical milestone” in Sino-US relations, claiming that Xi reached at least three objectives.
US Targets Risks From Chinese Cranes in US Ports
Pamir assesses that the primary risk from maintaining a Chinese crane presence in US ports is China’s exploitation of data acquired through the monitoring of commercial inputs for a trade advantage. Although Chinese cranes can shut down port operations, barring a crisis situation, it is unlikely that China would resort to blunt measures that would impede trade flows.
USTR Report Details Beijing’s Non-Market Practices
Two decades of participation in the World Trade Organization have failed to alter China’s centralized approach of pursuing trade policies and practices that advantage Chinese economic interests.
China Risks Drive Taiwan’s Declining Investments
Once a mainstay of Taiwan investment, China has become increasingly unattractive to small- and medium-sized businesses that now seek to pull out completely within five years and invest elsewhere.
Beijing Tightens Financial Oversight
Pamir posits that the appointment of WU Qing as the new chair of the China Securities Regulatory Commission signals further tightening of financial oversight and an attempt to restore order in China’s financial industry.
China Update - US-China high-level economic talks - 17 November 2023
Following extensive talks with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on 9-10 November, Chinese Vice Premier HE Lifeng said the two sides had reached “three important consensuses”.
China’s Economy Faces Challenges Ahead
The World Bank and UBS expect China’s 2024 GDP will grow 4.5%; Moody’s projected 5% is similar to forecasts by most Chinese economists.
Chinese Private Space Enterprise Completes Vertical Takeoff, Vertical Landing Rocket Test
In January, Chinese private space enterprise LandSpace completed a “hop test” of its Vertical Takeoff, Vertical Landing (VTVL) rocket at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. This was another step in China’s efforts to become commercially competitive in reusable launch technology.
Boeing’s Challenges Press China's Emerging Aircraft Industry
On 27 January a Boeing 737 MAX 8 ordered by China Southern Airlines touched down in Guangzhou. This was the first delivery of a 737 MAX to China following a nearly five-year import ban.