Cross-Strait Tensions
Bilateral Tensions Persist Despite US Secretary Blinken’s China Visit
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent visit to China did not resolve fundamental differences on key issues between the US and China.
US Congress Affirms Security Support for Taiwan
Pamir assesses that China's immediate reactions to US Congressional support for Taiwan, the latest US arms sales package, and an ongoing US-Japan military exercise directed against a potential “China threat” suggest greater concern for growing US-Taiwan security cooperation than with what has become routine US-Japan military coordination.
China Risks Drive Taiwan’s Declining Investments
Once a mainstay of Taiwan investment, China has become increasingly unattractive to small- and medium-sized businesses that now seek to pull out completely within five years and invest elsewhere.
China Decries Being Named ‘Hypothetical Enemy’ in US-led Joint Military Exercises
Pamir assesses that despite China’s criticism of US-led joint military exercises with Japan and Australia, Beijing will not rashly initiate military conflict over Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Diplomatic Allies Dwindling
Seve Paeniu, Tuvalu’s top contender for its prime minister position, has called for the new government to consider the country’s economic interests and debate the issue of whether to have diplomatic relations with Taiwan or China, according to international media reporting.
US Congress Supports New Taiwan Administration
On 24 January a bipartisan congressional delegation led by Congressional Taiwan Caucus co-chairs Representatives Mario Diaz Balart and Ami Bera arrived in Taiwan for a three-day visit.
US Strengthens Military Ties With Taiwan
In December 2023, the Biden administration approved its 12th arms sale to Taiwan. President Joe Biden signed measures into law calling for strengthened US military ties with Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Economic Decoupling From China Gains Traction
Taiwan’s policy of economic decoupling from China has resulted in the weakening of Taiwan’s economic ties to China, even though China remains Taiwan’s largest export destination and source of imports.
Pamir Strategic Insights Issue 4: US reaction to Taiwan's Presidential Election
Washington’s measured response to the results of Taiwan’s presidential election reaffirms US efforts to uphold the status quo vis-à-vis China and Taiwan.
Pamir Strategic Insights Issue 3: China condemns Taiwan's Presidential Election results
Beijing’s disinformation campaigns combined with economic and military pressure failed to influence the outcome of Taiwan’s presidential election in favor of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party.
Pamir Strategic Insights Issue 2: Taiwan President-elect's victory formula
Taiwan Vice President William Lai’s (LAI Ching-te) election victory on 13 January marked the first time since Taiwan started direct presidential elections in 1996 that a party will hold the presidency over three consecutive terms.
2024 Taiwan Presidential and Legislative Elections Outlook
Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections scheduled to take place this coming Saturday are the first set of elections in what will be a “year of elections.”
Taiwan’s economy with risk exposure in China and cross-Strait tensions are causing concern for Western companies
Cross-Strait tensions, and the 2024 Taiwan presidential elections, are prompting some Western organizations and investors to diversify away from both Taiwan and China in order to minimize risk exposure to the mainland.
Pamir Strategic Insights Issue 1: Strategic Outlook 2024: US-China Relations
US-China strategic competition stands at a critical juncture and is likely to intensify in 2024.
China Update - China’s new Foreign State Immunity Law - 2 October 2023
China invested RMB 3.782 trillion ($519 billion) in technology R&D in 2022, up 10.1% YoY and the seventh year of double-digit growth, according to Chinese government data released on 20 September.