Geopolitics
US-Philippines relations warm amid Chinese provocations
The Philippines is having to walk a thin line between appeasing China and supporting US and allied regional security.
China Update - Beijng’s calculus to foster Moscow’s dependence on China - 4 April 2023
On 22 March Chinese President XI Jinping concluded a three-day state visit to Moscow that saw China and Russia sign 14 joint statements and agreements.
US-Taiwan-G7 Leaders: Building trade partnerships and mitigating risk from China
As the US and Taiwan foster closer trading partnerships and increased bilateral trade flows, China has retaliated with sanctions on US and Taiwanese companies and has conducted military drills near the island, as growing trade tensions threaten to spill over into military tensions, increasing the risk of sea and air miscalculations.
G7 Leaders discuss China at recent summit
During the recent G7 leaders’ summit in Japan, President Biden commented on US-China relations during a press conference which were picked up by international media: Biden sees shift in ties with China shortly.
Taiwan Update - Elevated risk environment in Taiwan Strait - 15 March 2023
On 6 March Defense Minister CHIU Kuo-cheng said Taiwan will not fire the first shot but will fire if Beijing enters Taiwan’s 12 nautical mile territorial waters. Chiu said, “China has changed the status quo of the Taiwan Strait by flying drones, aircraft, and balloons over our airspace, [and Beijing] could, without warning, break into our territorial sea baseline of 24 nautical miles and approach our territorial space of 12 nautical miles.”
China’s amended Counterespionage Law is creating an unpredictable risk environment for US companies
Despite promoting foreign investment, China’s introduction of its amended Counter Espionage Law is “spooking” both foreign investors, as well as the foreign local business community after a spate of local US office closures and the detention of foreign executives.
Taiwan Update - Increasing pressure on ruling DPP - 20 February 2023
China is proactively helping pro-unification parties in Taiwan in the run-up to Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election.
China Update - Absence of top-level comms hinders US and China from mitigating risk - 16 February 2023
China has taken an increasingly confrontational stand against the US in the wake of the spy balloon incident, accusing the US of engaging in “information and public opinion warfare.”
Taiwan Update - Maintaining the status quo remains top priority for Taiwan’s Vice President - 2 February 2023
Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai was sworn in as the new chairman of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on 18 January. As the only candidate for the position, Lai received almost 100 percent of the DPP votes, making him the most likely DPP candidate for Taiwan’s presidential election in 2024.
Growing calls for a Free Trade Agreement between the US and Taiwan
Taiwan is pushing for deeper institutionalized trade ties with the United States, as Taipei diversifies its trade ties beyond the mainland. At the same time, Washington’s economic policy toward Taiwan is changing as China’s growing military and political assertiveness continues to exacerbate the region’s risk environment.
Taiwan Update - US Taiwan Enhancement Resilience Act (TERA) substantially strengthens US-Taiwan military cooperation - 20 January 2023
The Taiwan Enhancement Resilience Act (TERA), signed by President Biden on 23 December 2022 as part of the Fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), represents a significant increase in US military support to Taiwan and quickly drew condemnation from China.
China and Brazil strengthen strategic trade and investment partnership
China’s interest in Brazil and Latin America beyond is part of its ongoing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to extend China’s influence across Latin America and more broadly the Global South. Brazilian President Lula da Silva is eager to strengthen economic ties with China.
Risk to civilian ships and aircraft in the South China Sea
In recent years, China has militarized several disputed islands in the South China Sea. As an essential artery for world trade, it poses an economic and political security threat to the world. Increasing skirmishes between China, the US, Australia, and other countries, is also increasing the risk of incidents involving civilian shipping and aircraft.
Japan-China relations deteriorate
For the first time, Japan has identified China as an unprecedented “strategic challenge”, leading it to announce three new defense strategies that will guide Japan’s defense posture for the next 5 to 10 years. In response, Japan will increase its 2023-2027 defense budget to $315 billion, nearly 1.6 times that for 2019- 2023, and equal to the defense budget of Russia.
The rise of Chinese state-sponsored cyber-attacks feeds growing US national security concerns
The global cyber security landscape has seen increasing threats over the last few years. The COVID pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and heightened US-China tensions over Taiwan have all provided fertile ground for cyberattacks against businesses and individuals.